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ARM Index Bulletin

See the latest ARM indexes here

Occasional news & changes about adjustable rate mortgage indexes and other financial indicators

Monday, December 31, 2007

OOPS: Some subscribers are seeing zeros instead of the 3-month daily LIBOR. I've corrected the error and all reports are being resent. Sorry for any confusion.

Speaking of LIBOR, have you noticed that the short-term rates have plunged? I think we can thank the TAF (see below) for at least some of this -- but end-of-quarter/end-of-year liquidity concerns might have something to do with it, too.

Whatever your thoughts about 2007, it's almost over. Happy (or Happier) New Year to all!

Friday, December 28, 2007

LIBOR RATES FALLING: Perhaps the Term Auction Facility is having some effect on those stubbornly-high Libor rates. The 3-month daily Libor has fallen from 5.05750% on December 12 (when it was announced) to 4.72875% on December 28. In fact, the largest one-day decline was that very number; it was 4.83% on December 27.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

We're having technical difficulties with our email system, so the reports are being sent out via our standby AOL address (HSHAssoc@aol.com). If you don't see your report shortly, please check your spam filters.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

As you know, the Fed and four other central banks have come up with a crafty way to provide liquidity to US (and other) depository institutions via the newly-announced Term Auction Facility. It's a good way to provide them with cash that's cheaper than at the Fed's own discount window (and, arguably, without the stigma that such borrowing brings) and lets them make mortgages again -- particularly jumbos.

Where it ties into indexes is that the TAF will inevitably bring pressure to bear on those stubbornly high LIBOR rates. It might help do something for Treasuries, too -- not now, while they're being sold off, but later on.

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Another quarter-percentage-point cut in short-term rates, courtesy of the Fed, is resulting in a predictable cut in the Prime Rate to 7.25%.

Friday, December 7, 2007

The PA Act 6 lending rate for December 2007 hasn't yet been posted -- but the January 2008 rate has been. I'm hoping for a clarification.

UPDATE: The PA DoB has informed me (Dec. 10) that the rate is 7.25%.

MetaPost: Indexes via webservice

You may already know that HSH delivers ARM indexes via a web service application. However, we're now offering the ability to obtain individual values (as opposed to the current GetMyBatch method), and this will include historic ARM index values as well. Write to us for more info.

Friday, November 23, 2007

HSH is closed today, but the reports are going out because some clients are open.

Monday, November 19, 2007

This week, many businesses (including HSH) will be closed on Thursday (Nov. 22) and Friday (Nov. 23) for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

H.15 CHANGE ALERT: the following Commercial Paper values for 11/15 were changed in the 11/19/2007 Weekly H.15.

  • 1-month AA nonfinancial commercial paper (daily): from 4.20 to 4.50
  • 3-month AA nonfinancial commercial paper (daily): from 4.47 to 4.46
  • 1-month AA financial commercial paper (daily): from 4.47 to 4.54
  • 2-month AA financial commercial paper (daily): from 4.64 to 4.68
  • 3-month AA financial commercial paper (daily): from 4.61 to 4.98

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

The Federal Reserve cut a quarter percent from both the Federal Funds and Discount Rates today. Read what's in store for rates at HSH.com.

The Prime Rate will also fall to 7.50%, effective today, as per tomorrow's edition of The Wall Street Journal.

ANOTHER INDEX GONE: The Golden West COSI has evidently been discontinued, as it is no longer being published on either the Wachovia or World Savings websites. (World was, of course, taken over by Wachovia.) Interestingly, the pages still maintain that the index values are "Current as of 10/15/2007", but the GW COSI disappeared sometime on October 29. In any event, this would designate the Wachovia COSI as the successor index.

Monday, October 29, 2007

H.15 CHANGE ALERT: the following values were changed in the 09/17/2007 Weekly H.15:

  • 3-month CD (secondary market): daily value for 10/25/07 is revised from 4.85 to4.90

Thursday, October 4, 2007

A brief discussion of the monthly LIBOR

As pretty much everyone knows, the recent mess in the subprime mortgage market affected more than just credit-challenged homebuyers and mortgage lenders who got in too deep investing in (and/or making) subprime loans.

We received an inquiry from a market watcher who wanted to know why monthly LIBOR rates shot up from 5.32%, where they'd been languishing for the past several months, to over 5.49% in August and in September. It's a fair enough question, so we're addressing it here.

Libor (also capitalized as LIBOR) is an acronym for the London InterBank Offered Rate. It's analogous to the US Federal Funds rate; it's the price of money that banks charge each other for short-term loans. Why, our sharp-eyed watcher asked, did the LIBOR rise when the Fed Funds rate got cut?

As we noted in our Sept. 14 Weekly Market Trends newsletter:

After the rising level of mistrust washed across markets in August, many different markets which function on trust have been affected, including Commercial Paper, overnight loans between banks (including LIBOR), non- conforming mortgages, and Treasury markets.

Because they didn't trust the quality of the assets being pledged, those firms and banks which would put up money on a short-term basis against assets in the Commercial Paper markets stopped doing so, crimping the availability of credit to businesses (including those which make mortgages). This became the case in overseas markets, where the short-term cost of borrowing money (LIBOR) began rising to cover perceived risks. Also, investors who would buy mortgages pulled back, as they could not trust the quality of the assets or that a market to resell those loans at a profit would exist when or if they wished to unload them. Finally, money roared into the most trusted assets, namely US Treasury obligations, whose prices soared and yields plummeted over the past few weeks.

The following week, following the Fed's half-point rate cut, we wrote:

The Fed also lowered the cost of borrowing directly from the Fed itself via the "Discount Window," where banks can pledge assets as collateral and receive loans of cash against them. In the past couple of weeks, those infusions of liquidity have helped ease the logjam in credit markets to a degree, just as it appears that injections of cash into UK-based markets have helped lower the rates for LIBOR to a good degree. Important for all kinds of adjustable rate loans, the yield on one- month LIBOR rose from the low- to the upper-five percent range in a matter of weeks, but has since settled back, which is better news for American ARM holders than they might have otherwise expected.

In fact, the rise in Libor rates had begun to occur even earlier. The 1-month daily Libor, which started at over 5.3% in August, had shot up to over 5.75% by the start of September; it remained over 5.8% for nearly a week before settling down by the end of the month.

As noted above, it wasn't just LIBOR that got hit. Zillions of dollars that would normally have been invested in mortgages didn't, and all that cash was looking for somewhere to go. Like a swarm of bees looking for nectar-rich flowers, that cash flitted among various short-term interest rates including Treasuries (which it abandoned when the surge in demand drove down yields to unprofitable levels).

You probably don't remember the business-section articles that noted that oil prices had exceeded $80 per barrel -- which they did, briefly, courtesy of anxious investors -- because, unlikely as it sounds, it didn't actually affect the price you pay at the pump.

Now, we hasten to add, LIBOR didn't suffer from a sudden influx of cash. Rather, it was the newfound suspicion of the credit markets having anything to do with US mortgages that was to blame, as noted above. Nonetheless, the end result was the same: higher rates. Also, this affected the 1-month Libor far more than the longer-term Libor rates.

(What do you think? Agree, disagree? Comments? Brickbats? Let us know.)

Monday, October 1, 2007

H.15 CHANGE ALERT: The following announcement was prepended to the 10/01/2007 Weekly H.15:


                         Corrections for rounding errors on interest rate swaps

   Due to a software problem, several of the rates on interest rate swaps were rounded incorrectly
   when originally published on the H.15 Selected Interest Rates statistical release. The following
   table lists the corrected observations:

   +---------------------------------------------------------+
   |  Swap  | Observation | Publication | Original | Correct |
   |  Rate  |    Date     |    Date     |  Value   |  Value  |
   |--------+-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   | 1-year | 2007-08-21  | 2007-08-27  |     4.89 |    4.90 |
   |--------+-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   | 2-year | 2007-08-14  | 2007-08-20  |     5.01 |    5.02 |
   |--------+-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   | 3-year | 2006-02-06  | 2006-02-13  |     5.01 |    5.02 |
   |        |-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   |        | 2007-03-16  | 2007-03-19  |     4.93 |    4.94 |
   |        |-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   |        | 2007-04-03  | 2007-04-09  |     4.97 |    4.98 |
   |        |-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   |        | 2007-04-25  | 2007-04-30  |     4.93 |    4.94 |
   |        |-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   |        | 2007-05-09  | 2007-05-14  |     5.01 |    5.02 |
   |--------+-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   | 4-year | 2006-11-20  | 2006-11-27  |     5.01 |    5.02 |
   |        |-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   |        | 2006-12-18  | 2006-12-26  |     4.97 |    4.98 |
   |--------+-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   | 5-year | 2007-03-14  | 2007-03-19  |     4.89 |    4.90 |
   |        |-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   |        | 2007-04-05  | 2007-04-09  |     5.01 |    5.02 |
   |        |-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   |        | 2007-05-11  | 2007-05-14  |     5.01 |    5.02 |
   |--------+-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   | 7-year | 2006-11-28  | 2006-12-04  |     4.93 |    4.94 |
   |        |-------------+-------------+----------+---------|
   |        | 2007-09-13  | 2007-09-17  |     4.97 |    4.98 |
   +---------------------------------------------------------+

   The above corrections have been made to the historical data. In addition, some earlier observations
   in the historical data have been corrected. However, these observations were published correctly on
   the original statistical releases.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

FANNIE MAE DELAY: The Fannie Mae website isn't showing any RNYs for today. We will delay reports a while longer to see if the problem clears up.

UPDATE: RNYs are in - reports are going out.

Monday, September 24, 2007

TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES: The reports will be late today.

Friday, September 21, 2007

FANNIE MAE DELAY, again.

UPDATE: Still no Fannies. Reports going out.

UPDATE 2: 5 PM - finally updated!

Thursday, September 20, 2007

FANNIE MAE DELAY: The Fannie Mae website isn't showing any RNYs for today. We will delay reports a while longer to see if the problem clears up.

UPDATE: No FNMA RNYs are available. If the website is updated, we'll send updated reports

UPDATE 2: As of 5 PM, still no update.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

The Federal Reserve cut a half percent from both the Federal Funds and Discount Rates today.

The Prime Rate will also fall to 7.75%, effective today, as per tomorrow's edition of The Wall Street Journal.

Monday, September 17, 2007

H.15 CHANGE ALERT: according to the 09/17/2007 Weekly H.15, the following values have been changed from the 09/11/2007 Daily H.15 (et.seq.)

  • The 09/10/2007 value for the 3 Month CD (Secondary Market) (daily) was changed from 5.70 to 5.72
  • The 09/10/2007 value for the 6 Month CD (Secondary Market) (daily) was changed from 5.45 to 5.49

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Take a look at Monday's H.15 report from the Fed. You already knew about the rally in Treasuries on Friday, but did you notice the Secondary Market CDs? Yields on those have jumped sharply.

It seems that a number of large institutions are pumping up their CD yields as a way to get some cheap liquidity.

Friday, September 7, 2007

FANNIE MAE DELAY: The Fannie Mae website isn't showing any RNYs for today. We will delay reports a while longer to see if the problem clears up.

UPDATE: Still no Fannies. Reports going out.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Happy Summer Bank Holiday! Er, if you're in the UK. The Holiday means that no BBA LIBOR values will be published today; therefore, Friday's values are in effect for both Monday and Tuesday.

There are no 3-month, 6-month or 1-year CMDI values for Friday, August 24. A footnote on the Fannie Mae CMDI page notes that they

...reserve the right to publish and/or revise the index by 3:00 p.m. on the second business day after the time specified in the preceding sentence. In addition, although Fannie Mae makes a good faith effort to publish the index every business day, Fannie Mae does not guarantee that it will always publish the index every business day...

Thursday, August 23, 2007

H.15 CHANGE ALERT: according to the 08/23/2007 Daily H.15, the following values have been changed from the 08/22/2007 Daily H.15.

  • All of the Commercial Paper quotes (financial & nonfinancial) for 08/22/07 have been published.
  • All of the Interest rate swaps for 08/22/07 have been published.

Thursday, August 2, 2007

FANNIE MAE DELAY: The Fannie Mae website isn't showing any RNYs for today. We will delay reports a while longer to see if the problem clears up.

UPDATE: The reports will go out no later than 11:30 AM ET; we'll re-send if/when Fannie publishes.

UPDATE 2: Updated reports are going out now.

Monday, July 30, 2007

HSH LIBOR has now been added to our standard DIUS-25, DIUS-40, and DIUS-55 reports.

Custom clients: As noted earlier, we will add HSH LIBOR to your reports upon request so we don't unintentionally interfere with any import routine. Webservice clients: we'll add the HSH LIBOR to your XML service shortly.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention - they are on the 'Derived Indexes' tab.

Friday, July 27, 2007

FANNIE MAE DELAY: The Fannie Mae website isn't showing any RNYs for today. We will delay reports a while longer to see if the problem clears up.

UPDATE: Fannie Mae came through -- reports going out now.

Monday, July 23, 2007

TECHNICAL issues are keeping us from sending the DIUS reports, but they'll be out shortly.

Monday, July 16, 2007

H.15 CHANGE ALERT: according to the 07/16/2007 Weekly H.15, the following values have been changed from the 07/13/2007 Daily H.15.

  • The 07/12/2007 value for the 1 Month CD (Secondary Market) (daily) was changed from n.a. to 5.28
  • The 07/12/2007 value for the 3 Month CD (Secondary Market) (daily) was changed from n.a. to 5.32
  • The 07/12/2007 value for the 6 Month CD (Secondary Market) (daily) was changed from n.a. to 5.35

HEADS UP: the HSH LIBOR series will be replacing the FNMA LIBOR on our standard reports (DIUS25, 40, and 55) at some point in the next two weeks.

Custom clients: We will refrain from changing your reports until we hear from you, so that we don't mess up any automated import routines. Webservice clients: we'll add the HSH LIBOR to your XML service at the same time.

Friday, July 6, 2007

Freddie Mac's RNY page appears to be experiencing some very odd database issues. The page we loaded showed RNYs from 9:02 AM today, 07/06; we prefer to list the opening (8:30) values, but since 9:02 is the earliest available as of this writing (about 10:20), that's what we're reporting to our clients.

That's not the odd thing, though. We reloaded the page in Firefox, and it's now showing RNYs from 10:02; there's no dropdown to select earlier times, which is unusual.

What's more, we can see 07/06 RNYs only in Firefox. Using IE or Opera shows RNYs from yesterday, 07/05, at 12:03; the only earlier time available is 10 AM. The opening (8:30) RNYs aren't there (nor are the 9 or 11 AM values).

Deleting the browser cache has no effect, btw.

Does Freddie Mac use a 'browser sniffer'? And even if so, how would that account for seeing two different days in different browsers?

UPDATE: We can replicate this on two other PCs here in the office.

UPDATE 2: Going through AOL shows today, as does using Netscape 3.0 (that's not a typo; it's from 1996).

Friday, June 29, 2007

The last FNMA LIBOR values have been posted.

Friday, June 8, 2007

HSH LIBOR HSH LIBOR: The current as well as historical HSH LIBOR values are now updated. We offer this index as a replacement for the soon-to-be- discontinued FNMA LIBOR series. Feel free to download a spreadsheet which compares the HSH LIBOR to the FNMA LIBOR, too. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to contact us.

Click the image to the left for more information.


Monday, May 28, 2007

Today is Spring Bank Holiday in the UK. Tomorrow's (Tuesday's) report will repeat the BBA LIBOR values from Friday, 05/25.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

As previously noted, the Fannie Mae LIBOR will be discontinued with the June values to be posted by June 28, 2007.

In an attempt to offer some continuity to the series, HSH Associates will publish HSH LIBOR values beginning May 31. Both az weekly series and a monthly series will be released, and both will feature a back 'history' to 1995.

Monday, May 21, 2007

Another Monday, another delay in Freddie Mac's Required Net Yields. We're delaying the DIUS reports for a little while (but no later than 11 am ET) in hopes of getting them.

UPDATE: 11 am -- the reports are going out. We'll resend the reports when Freddie updates its RNYs.

UPDATE II: They're finally out -- at 2 PM.

Monday, May 7, 2007

The UK celebrates its Early May Bank Holiday today. No BBA LIBOR values for 05/07 will be available. Instead, Tuesday's report will show the values from Friday, 04/27.

Thursday, May 3, 2007

According to Dismal.com (subscription required), the Treasury is discontinuing three-year Treasury notes:

Today the Treasury Department announced that the next auction of three-year notes, scheduled for May 7, would be the last. The agency cited strong tax receipts, an improving fiscal budget and less need to issue debt as the rationale behind the decision. In the near term, this decision will likely boost demand for other medium-term notes, such as the two-year and five-year. That said, the improvement in the fiscal finance outlook is only temporary; as entitlement spending increases and tax revenue moderates later this decade, government borrowing plans may force the Treasury to again start issuing the note. Indeed, when the Treasury temporarily stopped issuing the 30-year note, we cited a similar backdrop. Unlike the 30-year, however, because demand for the three-year can be at least partially offset by other issues, the threshold for bringing it back will be higher.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

No more Fannie Mae LIBOR: Fannie Mae announced last fall that "The final values for Fannie Mae LIBOR indices will be posted by June 28, 2007."

Anyone using the Fannie Mae LIBOR index data to adjust mortgage loan interest rates should consult their own counsel regarding the appropriate replacement index for Fannie Mae LIBOR. Fannie Mae has recommended to its lender and servicer customers that subject to language in the related note, LIBOR values published in the Wall Street Journal are comparable replacement indices in most cases.

For more information, see Selling and Servicing Guide Announcement 06-21, "Discontinuance of Fannie Mae LIBOR Indices" (PDF).

The June values will the the last for the FNMA LIBOR. Subscribers to HSH's Daily Index Update Service who may not be currently receiving the BBA LIBOR values should contact us to update their report templates before the end of June.

UPDATE: HSH will introduce a successor. Click here for more info.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Freddie Mac is once again experiencing technical difficulties; their Required Net Yields aren't available as of this writing (10:30 am). Normally we 'publish' our reports at or about 10 am, but we're delaying the DIUS reports for a little while (but no later than 11 am) in hopes of getting them.

UPDATE: No Freddie Mac RNYs. The reports are going out now.

UPDATE 2: Finally out -- at noon!

UPDATE 3: Reports with the Freddie Mac RNYs were recompiled and resent.

Monday, April 16, 2007

COSI NEWS: The Cost of Savings Index (COSI) was a creation of, and was issued by, Golden West Financial's subsidiary World Savings. When Golden West Financial was acquired by Wachovia in October 2006, the decision was made to 1) retain the Golden West Financial (GDW) COSI and 2) introduce the "Wachovia COSI" as well.

HSH tracks both indexes. Subscribers who are receiving the COSI will continue to see it, but it will be renamed GDW COSI -- this is the name by which Wachovia refers to its legacy index. HSH will also track the new flavor, called the Wachovia COSI.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

The reports are very late today -- sorry; we're having technical difficulties so we can't compile and email our reports. Webservice subscribers should have no trouble accessing the data, though.

Monday, April 9, 2007

As noted, the UK celebrates Easter Monday today; therefore no BBA LIBOR values today. Subscribers will continue to see the 4/5 LIBOR values today and tomorrow.

UPDATE: A date glitch in the templates caused the wrong LIBOR values to appear in some reports. Here are the values (for 4/5) which should have appeared in today's reports:

One-month LIBOR: 5.32%
Three-month LIBOR: 5.35%
Six-month LIBOR: 5.33219%
One-year LIBOR: 5.22875%

Friday, April 6, 2007

It's Good Friday, a UK holiday; there won't be any BBA LIBOR values today. Plus, they celebrate Easter Monday on 4/9. As a result, the 4/5 values will be appearing on your reports for today, Monday, and Tuesday.

April 4, 2007

We're migrating various services to new, beefier servers, and the process is proceeding steadily if bumpily.

Even the Federal government isn't immune to database issues; the weekly Treasury bill auction results haven't been available this week: "The server has encountered an error, and we're unable to process your request."

UPDATE: Now the site's down altogether. LATER UPDATE: all better now.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Freddie Mac's Required Net Yields aren't available -- the nice young lady at the Cash Desk says they're having 'technical issues' with no estimated fix time. We'll delay the DIUS reports for a little while in hopes of getting them.

UPDATE: The RNYs came out at 11:08 AM (ET). Reports are being compiled now.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

FREDDIE MAC COST OF FUNDS: It's now up to date as Freddie has released both the December 2006 and January 2007 values.

Monday, February 19, 2007

HSH is officially closed but the index reports must go through, even though the daily LIBORs are the only indexes updated. However, somewhere in the past couple of days, Freddie Mac added the Nov. 2006 value of the FHLMC COF, so that's something.

Reminder: As it's a Federal holiday, the weekly H.15 will be released tomorrow.

Thursday, February 8, 2007

FREDDIE MAC COST OF FUNDS: The FHLMC COF hasn't been updated since November. Emails sent to Freddie Mac asking when the COF will be updated are neither acknowledged nor answered.

Friday, February 2, 2007

Freddie Mac's Required Net Yield (RNY) page is blank, i.e., it doesn't list any RNYs at all. This suggests they're having database issues (as opposed to website server issues).

UPDATE: It turns out that Mozilla Firefox (version 2.0.0.1) isn't rendering the page correctly (here's a screen shot from Firefox). Very odd - this problem only popped up today. The page looks okay using Internet Explorer and Opera. Other Firefox users, be aware.

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

The Fed stood pat at its latest meeting, opting to leave unchanged its short-term target rates. Thus, the Prime Rate won't be changing, either.

Monday, January 22, 2007

Freddie Mac experienced technical problems this morning, and the opening (8:30 AM) RNY quotes were not posted to its website. The first posted quotes were time-stamped 10:03:10 EST. As a result, DIUS reports are slightly delayed today.

Monday, January 15, 2007

Although it's a Federal holiday (in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr), which means that no US-based ARM indexes will be released, all DIUS reports will be published. Subscribers will, however, see a few updated state usury ceilings for February.

The day off also means, of course, that the weekly H.15 will be released tomorrow afternoon instead of today.

Tuesday, January 2, 2007

Weekly H.15 DELAYED: If you're looking for the latest Treasury security and other values listed on the Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.15, you'll have to wait one more day.

Usually released on Monday afternoon, the H.15 would have been delayed until today (Tuesday) since yesterday was New Year's Day. But in observance of the passing of President Ford, the FRB is closed today as well. The H.15 will be released tomorrow, Jan. 3.


For 2006 news, click here.


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